The thesis, right now
22 months into a value-add reposition. ~23 of 30 units turned with renovated re-leases at +21-28%; in-place rent +67% off the trough; occupancy recovered to 90% (100% peak Mar-26). Rents have reached the underwritten plan where renovated; the NOI gap to plan is expense-driven, not rent-driven - actual opex ~1.9x underwriting, concentrated in insurance (structural), an elevated affiliated property-management fee stack (~13% of EGI), and turn/maintenance (partly capital miscoded). Work orders reveal chronic electrical (patched not fixed) and plumbing waste-stack failures.
What moved
~$315K of 2025-26 capital carries no CAPITALIZE tag - reclass review needed; part of 'expense overage' is capital in disguise
Electrical being patched not fixed - chronic outages persist despite $58K Moss Bay upgrade (reversed at year-end)
3 items flagged: Moss Bay $58K reversal, Coe/Visse partnership costs, interest payee (related-party?)
What this record contains
This page is generated from the canonical record. Dimensions marked partial/pending are honestly incomplete — not zero.
Occupancy & income
| Month | Income | NOI | Expenses | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08 | $27,156 | $1,657 | $25,499 | 6% |
| 2024-09 | $31,732 | $25,731 | $6,001 | 81% |
| 2024-10 | $27,874 | $14,059 | $13,814 | 50% |
| 2024-11 | $28,424 | $13,613 | $14,811 | 48% |
| 2024-12 | $32,112 | -$324 | $32,436 | -1% |
| 2025-01 | $49,630 | $26,041 | $23,589 | 52% |
| 2025-02 | $17,657 | -$9,258 | $26,914 | -52% |
| 2025-03 | $38,050 | $14,665 | $23,385 | 39% |
| 2025-04 | $35,922 | $6,596 | $29,326 | 18% |
| 2025-05 | $33,020 | $748 | $32,271 | 2% |
| 2025-06 | $28,478 | -$18,357 | $46,835 | -64% |
| 2025-07 | $36,916 | -$10,789 | $47,705 | -29% |
| 2025-08 | $40,613 | $11,542 | $29,071 | 28% |
| 2025-09 | $31,762 | -$11,723 | $43,486 | -37% |
| 2025-10 | $50,680 | $3,598 | $47,082 | 7% |
| 2025-11 | $42,492 | $20,237 | $22,255 | 48% |
| 2025-12 | $54,391 | $68,264 | -$13,874 | 126% |
| 2026-01 | $34,501 | $12,660 | $21,840 | 37% |
| 2026-02 | $46,669 | $21,846 | $24,823 | 47% |
| 2026-03 | $44,675 | $17,917 | $26,759 | 40% |
| 2026-04 | $53,025 | $25,414 | $27,612 | 48% |
| 2026-05 | $34,745 | -$644 | $35,388 | -2% |
| 2026-06 | $33,192 | $12,369 | $20,824 | 37% |
Unit-level rent roll
Current rent-roll module not attached for this asset. Run rent_roll_parse.py on the latest month and pass the modules dir.
Operating performance · 2024-08 → 2026-06 (23mo)
| Year | Income | NOI | Margin | Opex |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 (5mo) | $147,298 | $54,736 | 37% | $92,561 |
| 2025 | $459,611 | $101,564 | 22% | $358,045 |
| 2026 (6mo) | $246,807 | $89,562 | 36% | $157,246 |
Where the money goes
Other
Other up 49% (recent vs earlier) — 11.2% of opex, ~$35,616/yr.
Management
Management up 33% (recent vs earlier) — 7.1% of opex, ~$22,502/yr.
Taxes
Taxes spiked to $25,499 in 2024-08 (~5.2x typical) — confirm one-time vs recurring.
Repairs & Maintenance
Repairs & Maintenance spiked to $19,959 in 2025-09 (~4.9x typical) — confirm one-time vs recurring.
Insurance
Insurance spiked to $20,666 in 2024-12 (~5.9x typical) — confirm one-time vs recurring.
Other
Other spiked to $7,185 in 2026-05 (~2.7x typical) — confirm one-time vs recurring.
Administrative
Administrative spiked to $8,734 in 2025-05 (~4.2x typical) — confirm one-time vs recurring.
Rising = recent months vs earlier; spike = worst month ÷ typical. One-time acquisition/financing costs are stripped to NOI automatically.
Pricing power & velocity
Actual days vacant, unit by unit
| Unit | Re-leased | Prior move-out | New move-in | Days vacant | Basis | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 306 | 2026-07 | 2026-04-28 | 2026-06-05 | 38d | actual | trade-out |
| 210 | 2026-05 | 2026-03-04 | 2026-04-30 | 57d | actual | trade-out |
| 100 | 2026-03 | 2025-05-01 | 2026-02-22 | 297d | actual | trade-out |
| 107 | 2026-02 | 2025-06-30 | 2026-01-08 | 192d | actual | trade-out |
| 302 | 2026-01 | 2025-09-30 | 2025-12-03 | 64d | actual | trade-out |
| 202 | 2025-11 | 2025-08-30 | 2025-10-02 | 33d | actual | trade-out |
| 110 | 2025-11 | 2025-08-29 | 2025-10-12 | 44d | actual | trade-out |
| 109 | 2025-10 | 2025-07-31 | 2025-09-07 | 38d | actual | trade-out |
| 302 | 2025-09 | 2025-03-31 | 2025-08-29 | 151d | actual | trade-out |
| 206 | 2025-09 | 2025-04-30 | 2025-08-03 | 95d | actual | value-add reno |
| 303 | 2025-09 | 2025-02-28 | 2025-09-01 | 185d | actual | value-add reno |
| 205 | 2025-09 | 2025-06-13 | 2025-08-12 | 60d | actual | trade-out |
| 106 | 2025-09 | 2025-04-30 | 2025-08-17 | 109d | actual | value-add reno |
| 209 | 2025-08 | 2025-04-30 | 2025-07-06 | 67d | actual | value-add reno |
| 304 | 2025-07 | 2025-02-28 | 2025-06-09 | 101d | actual | trade-out |
| 210 | 2025-07 | 2025-04-07 | 2025-06-13 | 67d | actual | value-add reno |
| 207 | 2025-06 | 2024-11-30 | 2025-05-05 | 156d | actual | value-add reno |
| 101 | 2025-06 | 2024-09-21 | 2025-05-05 | 226d | actual | trade-out |
| 306 | 2025-06 | 2025-02-28 | 2025-05-03 | 64d | actual | trade-out |
| 201 | 2025-05 | 2025-02-13 | 2025-05-01 | 77d | actual | value-add reno |
| 204 | 2025-04 | 2024-11-24 | 2025-03-20 | 116d | actual | trade-out |
| 301 | 2025-03 | 2024-09-30 | 2025-02-04 | 127d | actual | trade-out |
| 309 | 2025-03 | 2024-12-01 | 2025-02-04 | 65d | actual | value-add reno |
| 104 | 2025-02 | 2024-11-13 | 2025-01-05 | 53d | actual | trade-out |
Trade-outs & renewals — what repricing is capturing
| Month | Unit | Prior rent | New rent | Δ $/mo | Δ % | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07 | 209 | $1,350 | $1,480 | +$130 | +9.6% | renewal |
| 2026-07 | 306 | $1,695 | $1,895 | +$200 | +11.8% | trade-out |
| 2026-07 | 307 | $1,395 | $1,520 | +$125 | +9% | renewal |
| 2026-06 | 304 | $1,395 | $1,525 | +$130 | +9.3% | renewal |
| 2026-05 | 308 | $1,295 | $1,420 | +$125 | +9.7% | renewal |
| 2026-05 | 207 | $1,395 | $1,475 | +$80 | +5.7% | renewal |
| 2026-05 | 208 | $1,295 | $1,420 | +$125 | +9.7% | renewal |
| 2026-05 | 105 | $1,301 | $1,425 | +$124 | +9.5% | renewal |
| 2026-05 | 203 | $1,150 | $1,260 | +$110 | +9.6% | renewal |
| 2026-05 | 101 | $1,695 | $1,795 | +$100 | +5.9% | renewal |
| 2026-05 | 201 | $1,650 | $1,810 | +$160 | +9.7% | renewal |
| 2026-05 | 310 | $1,483 | $1,625 | +$142 | +9.6% | renewal |
| 2026-05 | 210 | $1,695 | $1,745 | +$50 | +2.9% | trade-out |
| 2026-05 | 309 | $1,250 | $1,370 | +$120 | +9.6% | renewal |
| 2026-03 | 204 | $1,200 | $1,315 | +$115 | +9.6% | renewal |
| 2026-03 | 100 | $1,550 | $1,595 | +$45 | +2.9% | trade-out |
| 2026-02 | 301 | $1,550 | $1,645 | +$95 | +6.1% | renewal |
| 2026-02 | 107 | $1,395 | $1,195 | -$200 | -14.3% | trade-out |
| 2026-01 | 302 | $1,345 | $1,295 | -$50 | -3.7% | trade-out |
| 2026-01 | 104 | $1,295 | $1,350 | +$55 | +4.2% | renewal |
| 2025-11 | 202 | $1,350 | $1,395 | +$45 | +3.3% | trade-out |
| 2025-11 | 110 | $1,695 | $1,695 | +$0 | 0% | trade-out |
| 2025-10 | 109 | $1,295 | $1,395 | +$100 | +7.7% | trade-out |
| 2025-09 | 302 | $1,150 | $1,345 | +$195 | +17% | trade-out |
| 2025-09 | 206 | $1,450 | $1,795 | +$345 | +23.8% | value-add reno |
| 2025-09 | 303 | $1,100 | $1,345 | +$245 | +22.3% | value-add reno |
| 2025-09 | 205 | $1,550 | $1,795 | +$245 | +15.8% | trade-out |
| 2025-09 | 106 | $1,400 | $1,695 | +$295 | +21.1% | value-add reno |
| 2025-08 | 209 | $1,100 | $1,480 | +$380 | +34.5% | value-add reno |
| 2025-07 | 304 | $1,373 | $1,525 | +$152 | +11.1% | trade-out |
| 2025-07 | 307 | $1,086 | $1,395 | +$309 | +28.5% | renewal |
| 2025-07 | 210 | $1,373 | $1,695 | +$322 | +23.5% | value-add reno |
| 2025-06 | 207 | $1,086 | $1,475 | +$389 | +35.8% | value-add reno |
| 2025-06 | 101 | $1,500 | $1,795 | +$295 | +19.7% | trade-out |
| 2025-06 | 306 | $1,483 | $1,695 | +$212 | +14.3% | trade-out |
| 2025-05 | 201 | $1,435 | $1,810 | +$375 | +26.1% | value-add reno |
| 2025-04 | 204 | $1,318 | $1,315 | -$3 | -0.2% | trade-out |
| 2025-03 | 301 | $1,648 | $1,645 | -$3 | -0.2% | trade-out |
| 2025-03 | 309 | $1,117 | $1,370 | +$253 | +22.6% | value-add reno |
| 2025-02 | 104 | $1,259 | $1,350 | +$91 | +7.2% | trade-out |
| 2024-10 | 104 | $1,150 | $1,259 | +$109 | +9.5% | renewal |
Occupancy, rent & turnover across the hold
Debt-service coverage
| Lender | Balance | Rate | Structure | Debt svc/yr | Maturity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seller Financing | $3.75M | — | IO | rate n/a | — |
Valuation & returns engine
Cash to & from partners
| Period | Amount |
|---|---|
| 2026-02 | $10,000 |
| 2026-05 | $15,000 |
What needs attention
Delinquency
4 flagged accounts.expenses
Opex ~1.9x UW; PM fee stack ~$64K (13% EGI); insurance under-underwritten; tax reassessed
capital_miscoding
~$315K of 2025-26 capital untagged; risk of capital expensed
electrical
Chronic outages persist despite $58K upgrade (reversed); patched not fixed; investigate Moss Bay reversal
plumbing
Waste/drain stack still original galvanized and failing; unfunded next capital item
affiliated
NWCREI, interest payee, Lombard AM fee - arm's-length review
financing
Bridge IO at 4% floor matures ~mid-2027; refi to 5.75% raises debt service